English Newsletter 'PEACE CULTURE' No.89, July 2023

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons Has Gained in Importance

Thomas HAJNOCZI

Executive Adviser of the
Hiroshima Peace Culture Foundation
Thomas HAJNOCZI

2022 brought a wake-up call for the world that the myth on which nuclear deterrence is built is not true. Russia's war against Ukraine proved that nuclear weapons do not serve as a deterrent against wars, but on the contrary make them more likely. President Putin calculated that Russia's nuclear weapons are a kind of free ticket to start wars against non-nuclear states, since they will interdict other big powers to fight on the side of Ukraine. The widely held assumption that the possession of nuclear weapons due to their inherent terrible dangers would prevent aggression wars started by nuclear powers did not stand the test of reality. It became evident that nuclear weapons do not save us from wars that even might involve the use of nuclear weapons as threatened by Russia's leaders. Clearly international security and global stability cannot rest on nuclear weapons which pose the greatest danger to human survival.
 The recently augmented "Russian threat" led to an increase in defense spending and a strengthening of alliances both in Europe and East Asia. Sadly, a longing for a stronger nuclear link has been also raised by some allies. The carefully measured American response to Russia's nuclear threats in Ukraine showed the responsible attitude of the US administration aiming at not to use nuclear weapons. Most probably rational leaders would not defend attacked allies by nuclear weapons. They would not be willing to sacrifice the lives of millions of their own population for any other nation.
 Table top exercises of senior US commanders have shown that there is a high likelihood that the detonation of only one nuclear weapon would trigger a full-scale nuclear exchange extinguishing our civilization. As the nuclear weapons states themselves have expressed in January 2022, "nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought". The use of nuclear weapons would trigger collective suicide. Therefore, they cannot be regarded as a credible security policy option and hence not as a realistic means for providing security to their possessors or their allies.
 Last December, in spite of his previous threats, President Putin underlined that "we have not gone mad", denying any intention to use nuclear weapons in his aggression war against Ukraine. Indeed, he was right, it would be utter madness to use nuclear weapons. Yet, we have witnessed recently irrational behavior of leaders of nuclear armed states, so can we rely on that they will not commit a death bringing mistake? As long as nuclear weapons exist, they could detonate both intentionally as well as unintentionally by accident or misunderstanding. We could relive the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of Hiroshima and Nagasaki tomorrow at vastly bigger scale. Since 1945 nuclear weapons have become deadlier, more powerful and many times more numerous, at present about 12,700. Therefore, the only way to save mankind from the grave dangers that nuclear weapons bring about is to end nuclear weapons, before the end us.
 The abolition of nuclear weapons is the objective of the united world community, but the nuclear armed states fail to take the necessary measures. Therefore, the non-nuclear states called for negotiations on a legally binding norm to prohibit nuclear weapons in 2016 in the UN General Assembly, the most representative international body. It was thus decided by an overwhelming majority. Sadly, the nuclear armed states and almost all of their allies boycotted the negotiations. Paradoxically they acknowledge that a legal ban has led to the abolition of the other classes of weapons of mass destruction, chemical and biological weapons and yet fail to explain why it would not work with nuclear weapons. When 121 states adopted the text of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) in July 2017, a powerful norm has been created.
 As of January 2023, 92 states have signed and 68 ratified the TPNW, as more states are preparing to do so during this year. These figures continue to go up since its entry into force in January 2021. The significance of the TPNW became visible, when its First Meeting of States Parties was successfully held in June 2022 in Vienna. The Declaration adopted by the Meeting condemned unequivocally any and all nuclear threats, whether they be explicit or implicit and irrespective of the circumstances, and established that any threat to use nuclear weapons was unacceptable. This has remained the strongest condemnation of the Russian nuclear threat to date by a global multilateral forum. A number of important decisions on the implementation of the treaty were taken, e.g. the creation of a Scientific Advisory Committee. This reflects that civil society and scientists can and do play an important role. Surprisingly, in other nuclear disarmament fora hardly any attention is paid to their knowledge. A program of intersessional work was decided corroborating the vibrancy of this treaty. Informal working groups are dealing with victim assistance, environmental remediation, international cooperation and assistance, universalization and work related to the designation of a competent international authority to oversee the destruction of nuclear weapons. In November 2023 the Second Meeting of States Parties will be held in New York.
 The TPNW and the outcome of its successful First Meeting of States Parties already has made an impact on all countries, including those who oppose it and still cling on to nuclear weapons. The treaty's underlying key message that nuclear weapons are banned has changed the international discourse regarding nuclear weapons. Even the Secretary-General of NATO said last autumn that "any use of nuclear weapons is absolutely unacceptable", a thought that was mirrored in a speech by the German Chancellor Scholz. The summit of the G20 in Indonesia in which most leaders of nuclear weapon states and also the Japanese Prime Minister participated declared in November 2022 that threats and use of nuclear weapons are "inadmissible".
 The war in Ukraine is a humanitarian catastrophe and has destroyed our hopes that armed state aggression against a neighboring country would be a matter of the past. The Russian threats of using nuclear weapons brought home to the international community that nuclear weapons could be used as long as they exist and therefore pose the greatest danger to human survival.
 The Doomsday clock has come the closest to midnight ever, only 90 seconds to a nuclear war. In this desperate situation we ask ourselves, do we want to constantly live under a dangling sword of nuclear weapons? If you answer this question with a no, as the clear majority of people does, then nuclear weapons abolition based on the TPNW is the course to take. The TPNW offers not only a glimmer of hope, but also the key to an alternative to a world held hostage by nuclear weapons and opens the door to international security without them. The TPNW has gained in importance by increased international support and recognition, by the ongoing implementation work. It is more needed than ever.
 
Hiroshima Peace Culture Foundation
1-2 Nakajima-cho, Naka-ku, Hiroshima 730-0811 JAPAN
 Phone 082-241-5246 
Copyright © Since April 1, 2004, Hiroshima Peace Culture Foundation. All rights reserved.